Micro-Level Impacts of Conflict and the Duration of Armed Groups
Dominik Noe
Doctoral thesis
Date of Examination:
2013-08-16
Date of issue:
2013-09-30
Advisor:
Klasen, Stephan Prof. Dr.
Referee:
Dreher, Axel Prof. Dr.
Referee:
Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada Prof. Dr.
Persistent Address: http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-1735-0000-0001-BBA8-B
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Abstract
English
Political instability and political violence have been a major hindrance for development in developing and transition countries. Development and progress for countries is hard to achieve under the presence of armed conflict, as it can not only cause death and destruction but also deeply affect political and societal institutions. This dissertation investigates two very different impacts of conflict and the duration of groups responsible for political violence. The first chapter analyses the impact of civil conflict on domestic violence in Colombia and - taking advantage of the uneven spatial distribution of the conflict - finds that higher conflict intensity increases the likelihood of women to become a victim of domestic violence. The idea behind this is that the experience of conflict changes behaviour, attitude and culture. The second chapter investigates the effect of low-intensity armed conflict on firm-level investment in a Sub-Saharan African country. Firm level panel data from Ethiopian manufacturing is matched with battle-events at the town level, creating a very precise spatial identification of conflict exposure and showing adverse investment effect of conflict. The third chapter empirically investigates the impact of group characteristics and host country conditions on the duration and the ending of terrorist organizations and rebel groups. It relies on data for more than 600 armed groups and employs discrete time duration models. Findings are that organizations stabilize over time, support from other countries plays an important role, rich states are more likely to defeat armed groups and there is no evidence found that a restriction of civil rights decreases the duration of armed groups or increases the likelihood of capturing them.
Keywords: Armed conflict; Terrorist organizations; Spatial data; Discrete time duration models; Domestic violence; Investment; Competing risk regression; Colombia; Ethiopia
