Reasons for the Underperformance of Clean Development Mechanism Project Activities in the Animal Waste Management Sector

Deecke, Imme Dorothea

An Analysis of Swine Manure treating Facilities in Latin America

dc.contributor.advisor	Wegener, Jens-Karl Dr.	de
dc.contributor.author	Deecke, Imme Dorothea	de
dc.date.accessioned	2010-07-20T14:39:52Z	de
dc.date.accessioned	2013-01-18T10:10:26Z	de
dc.date.available	2013-01-30T23:51:27Z	de
dc.date.issued	2010-07-20	de
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/11858/00-1735-0000-0006-B05A-F	de
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-1728
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf	de
dc.language.iso	eng	de
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/	de
dc.title	Reasons for the Underperformance of Clean Development Mechanism Project Activities in the Animal Waste Management Sector	de
dc.title.alternative	An Analysis of Swine Manure treating Facilities in Latin America	de
dc.type	doctoralThesis	de
dc.title.translated	Ursachen des geringen Erfolgs von Abwasserbehandlungsprojekten in der Tierproduktion im Rahmen des Clean Development Mechanism	de
dc.contributor.referee	Lücke, Wolfgang Prof. Dr.	de
dc.date.examination	2010-02-04	de
dc.subject.dnb	500 Naturwissenschaften	de
dc.description.abstracteng	INTRODUCTION The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexible, project based mechanisms of the Kyoto protocol, which came into force in 2005. The projects participating in this mechanism estimate the potential emission reductions ex-ante by following specific guidance of the Executive Board (EB) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The amounts of emission reductions estimated and the amounts of emission reductions monitored ex-post differ. In some sectors projects reduce more emissions than forecasted (e.g. industrial gases sector) in other sectors less (e.g. landfill sector). The performance of project activities undertaken in the animal waste management sector is particular low (45 %). These projects aim at avoiding greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and flaring methane emitted from open lagoons in which swine manure is disposed. The reasons for the overestimation of potential emission reductions are subject to this doctoral thesis. In order to investigate whether inaccurate ex-ante assumptions are to be held responsible, it is analyzed if the ex-ante assessment of descriptive statistical parameters (hypothesis I) or if the use of default values issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (hypothesis II) causes the gap between forecasted and measured emission reductions.MATERIAL AND METHODS A sample of projects is identified, showing comparable characteristics. Relevant documentation regarding each project is consulted including project design documents, validation reports, monitoring reports, verification reports and others. As assessment factor the baseline emission forecast success is introduced. It is analyzed for each project of the sample. The hypotheses are further elaborated by assessing each applicable parameter and developing assumptions on its impact. It is investigated, if the suggested assumptions and introduced alternative approaches influence the baseline emission forecast success. Corresponding correction factors are derived. The quality of the monitoring is assessed by reviewing the monitoring reports and related documentation in order to receive information on mistakes and failures occurring during the monitoring of the projects. The results for all parameters applicable to each hypothesis are combined in order to test the hypothesis. Finally, all quantifiable measures are combined and applied to determine the over-all impact of the parameters on the baseline emission forecast success.RESULTS Initially the projects of the sample estimated the baseline emissions with a forecast success of 25 %, meaning that only 25 % of the forecasted baseline emissions were monitored ex-post. Analysing the descriptive statistical parameters (hypothesis I) results in heterogeneous correction factors between 0.95 (population) and 1.14 (start date). The assessment of the influence of default values (hypothesis II) shows that all default values lead to an overestimation and range from 1.16 (volatile solids not weight adjusted) to 1.64 (methane conversion factor). Using the alternative default values introduced in this study for the methane conversion factor and the volatile solids and adjusting the latter by animal weight have the strongest impact on the baseline emission forecast success. If all resulting correction factors of the analysed parameters are combined the baseline emission forecast success is improved by a factor of approximately 3.13. The resulting forecast success is about 79 %. The impact of the monitoring could not be quantified. On the one hand mistakes of the management personnel and monitoring equipment are found on and on the other, monitoring procedures, such as the indirect determination of the methane content of the biogas on a quarterly basis lead to inaccuracies. However, these effects may influence the forecast success both in a positive and in a negative way. Although the introduced corrections increase the baseline emission forecast success significantly, the improved performance of the projects is still heterogeneous. This shows that not all issues are covered by the corrections. The remaining discrepancies between forecasted and measured data could be due to monitoring issues. Another reason could be the fact that nearly no project specific data was available to test the default values. Therefore, default values were replaced by new and adjusted default values developed in this study.CONCLUSION Although the default factors have been proven to be inaccurate, the institutions advising to use them cannot be held solely responsible for the low performance of the projects. The UNFCCC methodology along with the IPCC guidelines inform the project developer about risks and uncertainties related to the default values and suggest more accurate measures. Nevertheless, it has been shown that the IPCC defaults are not substantiated enough and are based on only few references or estimates. Therefore, project developers have to use the default values with caution and obtain data from on-site measurements whenever possible. In addition, it has to be considered that the perspectives of the IPCC and the UNFCCC are different when estimating emissions. Both aim at conservative estimates. However, from the point of view of the IPCC, emissions should be rather overestimated than underestimated in order to assess the greenhouse gas inventories conservatively. The opposite is the case for CDM projects were the overestimation should be prevented through conservative approaches. Therefore, adjusting the IPCC defaults by a well substantiated conservatism factor when obtaining them for CDM projects should be considered. Summing up, it can be concluded that forecasting the biological process of biodigestion is complex and not thoroughly understood yet. More research has to be undertaken, especially on the methane conversion factor, in order to have default values allowing accurate and conservative forecasts.Abstract (GER)Niedersächsische Staats- und Universitätsbibliothek Göttingen 37070 GöttingenUrheberrechtCopyright	de
dc.contributor.coReferee	Märländer, Bernward Prof. Dr.	de
dc.title.alternativeTranslated	Eine Analyse von Schweineproduktionsbetrieben in Lateinamerika	de
dc.subject.topic	Agricultural Sciences	de
dc.subject.ger	Mechanismus für umweltverträgliche Entwicklung	de
dc.subject.ger	Clean Development Mechanismus	de
dc.subject.ger	CDM	de
dc.subject.ger	Methan	de
dc.subject.ger	Tierproduktion	de
dc.subject.ger	Abwasserbehandlung	de
dc.subject.ger	Schweinegülle	de
dc.subject.ger	Emissionsreduktion	de
dc.subject.ger	Methankonversionsfaktor	de
dc.subject.ger	Richtwert	de
dc.subject.ger	Standardwert	de
dc.subject.ger	Klimaschutz	de
dc.subject.ger	Klimawandel	de
dc.subject.ger	Weltklimarat	de
dc.subject.ger	Rahmenübereinkommen der Vereinten Nationen über Klimaänderungen	de
dc.subject.ger	Methodologie	de
dc.subject.ger	UNFCCC	de
dc.subject.ger	IPCCC	de
dc.subject.ger	Biogas	de
dc.subject.ger	Biogasanlage	de
dc.subject.ger	Aneaerober Abbau	de
dc.subject.eng	Clean Development Mechanism	de
dc.subject.eng	CDM	de
dc.subject.eng	Animal Waste Management	de
dc.subject.eng	Methane	de
dc.subject.eng	Underperformance	de
dc.subject.eng	Methane Conversion Factor	de
dc.subject.eng	Emission Reduction	de
dc.subject.eng	Swine Manure	de
dc.subject.eng	Issuance Success	de
dc.subject.eng	Baseline Emission Forecast Success	de
dc.subject.eng	Default Value	de
dc.subject.eng	Climate Change	de
dc.subject.eng	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change	de
dc.subject.eng	IPCC	de
dc.subject.eng	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change	de
dc.subject.eng	UNFCCC	de
dc.subject.eng	Methodology	de
dc.subject.eng	Certified Emission Reduction	de
dc.subject.eng	Biogas	de
dc.subject.eng	Biodigestion	de
dc.subject.eng	Anaerobic Lagoon	de
dc.subject.bk	43.61	de
dc.subject.bk	43.70	de
dc.subject.bk	43.47	de
dc.identifier.urn	urn:nbn:de:gbv:7-webdoc-2548-8	de
dc.identifier.purl	webdoc-2548	de
dc.affiliation.institute	Fakultät für Agrarwissenschaften	de
dc.subject.gokfull	YA	de
dc.subject.gokfull	ZWE 600: Abwassertechnik	de
dc.subject.gokfull	WR 700: Biologischer Abbau {Biologie	de
dc.subject.gokfull	Biotechnologie}	de
dc.identifier.ppn	636139123	de

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