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Microeconomic Analyses of the Causes and Consequences of Political Violence

dc.contributor.advisorKlasen, Stephan Prof. Dr.
dc.contributor.authorKreibaum, Merle
dc.titleMicroeconomic Analyses of the Causes and Consequences of Political Violencede
dc.contributor.refereeKlasen, Stephan Prof. Dr.
dc.description.abstractengViolent conflict is common among the poorest countries and clearly one of the most important barriers to growth, destroying physical, human, and social capital, often in the long run. At the same time, it is a development `trap' that is not easy to escape from as poverty has also been found to be one of the most important determinants of civil war. With increasing data availability and quality, the analysis of conflict has moved from the macro to the micro level, offering a promising way forward. This dissertation contributes to this developing, quantitative literature on the causes and consequences of violent political behaviour at the micro level. The first essay analyses the impact of regional oil resources on political groups being active in these areas. Namely, it is interested in these groups’ strategic decision to remain peaceful, resort to terrorism or initiate a civil war. Employing multinomial logit models and data for the Middle East and North Africa, we find that the existence of mineral resources does not affect the choice to resort to terrorist means. Yet, insurgencies become significantly more likely where a group has the prospect of controlling revenues from oil extraction. This effect can be mitigated by political participation, thus increasing the access to revenues by peaceful means. Contrary, proven desire for autonomy or the support by a foreign state make (secessionist) conflicts more probable. The second essay carries out an evaluation of the Ugandan refugee legislation regarding its aim to increase economic activity around refugee settlements and to improve access to public infrastructure for the national population. Furthermore, the perceptions of the host population are taken into account. We compare areas hosting refugees with the ones that do not in a difference-in-differences framework and with an instrumental variable approach. We find that Ugandans living close to refugee settlements are better off in terms of consumption and access to public services, especially primary schooling. However, these improvements in objective measures are not reflected in subjective indicators. The third essay looks at two dynamics that have influenced female labour force participation in Vietnam during the 20th century: the Vietnam War and the socialist political system. Using three waves of censuses, we estimate the determinants of a woman's choice to enter the labour market. In order to differentiate the effects of war for women directly affected by it from women only reaching working age after its end, we also carry out a cohort analysis. We find a significant and positive impact of conflict intensity on the probability to work for women of working age during the Vietnam War. For younger generations the effect is still positive but smaller and less robust. In contrast, living in the North and thus having been exposed to socialism for a longer period of time substantially increases the likelihood of a woman working. In each of the three chapters, the focus lies on the sub-national level in order to draw a nuanced picture of the contexts studied. Each essay finishes with individual policy recommendations and suggestions for further research in the
dc.contributor.coRefereeDreher, Axel Prof. Dr.
dc.contributor.thirdRefereeGassebner, Martin Prof. Dr.
dc.subject.engrefugees and host populationde
dc.subject.englocal integrationde
dc.subject.engDemocratic Republic of the Congode
dc.subject.engresource cursede
dc.subject.engfemale labour force participationde
dc.affiliation.instituteWirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultätde
dc.subject.gokfullWirtschaftswissenschaften (PPN621567140)de

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