Multi-criteria Decision Making for Energy System Evaluation
von Tobias Witt
Datum der mündl. Prüfung:2022-02-10
Erschienen:2022-04-01
Betreuer:Prof. Dr. Matthias Klumpp
Gutachter:Prof. Dr. Roberto Montemanni
Gutachter:Prof. Dr. Dr. Fabian J. Froese
Dateien
Name:MCDM_for_Energy_System_Evaluation.pdf
Size:785.Kb
Format:PDF
Zusammenfassung
Englisch
Multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) is a field of knowledge in Operations Research that can help decision-makers make transparent and auditable decisions in a logical manner. It offers methods that help to choose suitable decision alternatives from the set of available alternatives, via synthesis of objective information – specifying the expected consequences of a decision – and subjective information – specifying how much any single consequence matters. MCDM approaches can be used (1) to open up discussions among stakeholders, decision makers, and analysts by structuring complex decision problems, including a search for suitable alternatives as well as relevant evaluation criteria and uncertainties, and/or (2) to close down discussions by aggregating relevant information in a logical manner and ranking the alternatives accordingly. One application area of MCDM is energy systems planning. One objective of energy systems planning is to reach sustainable energy supply systems, and thus, the sustainability of such systems needs to be evaluated in the planning process. The sustainability objective is usually operationalized with a wide range of economic, social, environmental, and technical criteria. Because these criteria are usually conflicting and measured in incommensurable units, formal decision support with MCDM approaches can be helpful. Energy scenario studies provide orientation for decision-makers in government and industry by offering relevant quantitative information on key figures such as system costs regarding various long-term strategies in the energy sector. The majority of energy scenario studies thus does not incorporate MCDM techniques, but is mainly based on quantitative energy system analysis. While MCDM has already been applied to support decision-making in energy systems planning, varying forms of combining MCDM and energy systems planning hinder effective decision support. Therefore, the objective of this dissertation is to investigate how MCDM approaches can effectively support decision-making in energy systems planning. The contributions of this dissertation are arranged in four phases: First, a qualitative literature review on energy scenarios and energy systems analysis leads to the development of a morphological box of energy scenario studies. It serves as a means of structuring the different types of energy scenario studies and helped identify research gaps regarding the integration of MCDM and energy system analysis. Second, an approach, which allows the integrated development and evaluation of energy scenarios, is developed and applied to the transition of the power supply system in Lower Saxony, Germany. Third, the new and existing approaches for combining MCDM and energy system analysis are reviewed and investigated regarding their transparency and implications for decision support. Moreover, use cases for both approaches are derived. Forth, the new approach is extended and applied to the multi-period evaluation of the power supply system in the bio-energy town Jühnde.
Keywords: Production and Logistics; Multi-criteria Decision Making