Essays on Technological Change and Trade in Development Economics
by Henry Stemmler
Date of Examination:2022-05-27
Date of issue:2022-06-16
Advisor:Prof. Dr. Holger Strulik
Referee:Prof. Dr. Krisztina Kis-Katos
Referee:Prof. Dr. Axel Dreher
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Abstract
English
This thesis analyzes how trade and technological change affect economic development. Chapter 1 investigates how domestic and foreign automation impact an emerging economy. Regions in Brazil which are more exposed to foreign automation through input-output linkages experiences larger decreases in the manufacturing employment ratio and increases in the mining sector employment ratio. These shifts are driven by changes in the demand for export goods from local labor markets. Domestic automation has lesser effects, but benefits higher skilled and female workers. Chapter 2 studies whether solar panel home systems can help farmers in rural areas to mitigate income losses when they experience agricultural shocks. The results show that farmers make use of the solar panel system for income generation when facing harvest loss. This is in particular driven by customers with fewer resources and those living in more remote areas where little alternative employment opportunities exist. Furthermore, customers who are more likely to use their solar panel for business purposes face less loan repayment difficulties after an agricultural shock. Chapter 3 presents robust evidence of civil conflict leading to trade relocation in the global economy, which persists even after the resolution of a conflict. The chapter develops an estimation approach, which translates the triadic relationship between a conflict country and an exporter-importer pair into an estimable dyadic relationship. A heterogeneity analysis suggests that trade relocation does not occur in the fuels sector, and that highly integrated supply chains are less likely to relocate.
Keywords: Development; Trade; Technology; Conflict