Agricultural Sustainable Development: Technology Adoption and Climate Change
by Shuang Liu
Date of Examination:2025-06-12
Date of issue:2025-07-01
Advisor:Prof. Dr. Xiaohua Yu
Referee:Prof. Dr. Xiaohua Yu
Referee:Prof. Dr. Bernhard Brümmer
Referee:Prof. Ph.D Wendong Zhang
Persistent Address:
http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-11361
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Abstract
English
The dissertation with the title “Agricultural Sustainable Development: Technology Adoption and Climate Change” aims to advance our understanding of how sustainable agricultural practices can be achieved through a multifaceted approach that addresses the growing challenges in agriculture. In an era marked by resource scarcity, rapid climate change, and the need for increased food production, sustainable development in agriculture has become critical not only to ensure food security but also to safeguard environmental health and resilience. This project aims to 1) examine the role of technology adoption in enhancing agricultural productivity and profitability for producers, 2) investigate the impacts of climate change, economic growth, government policies, and land quality on cropland loss and food security, and 3) assess the evolution of policies that support long-term sustainability goals. By integrating these perspectives, the project seeks to provide actionable insights to guide policymakers, farmers, and stakeholders in developing effective solutions for sustainable agriculture. In the first study, we examine whether technology adoption benefits agricultural producers in China. Using nationally representative survey data, we draw on evidence from product certification and e-commerce adoption and apply multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR) to analyze production and profitability outcomes for grain and cash crop producers. We find that agricultural producers who adopt e-commerce, product certification, or both strategies have significant price premiums, increased sales revenue, and greater profitability, despite the increased production costs, with cash crop producers and large-scale producers gaining more benefits. Additionally, we find a synergistic effect: agricultural producers benefit more from adopting both product certification and e-commerce simultaneously than the sum of the effects of adopting the two strategies separately. This positive reinforcement between the two strategies is more pronounced among cash crop producers compared to grain crop producers, as well as among larger-scale producers compared to their small-scale counterparts. These findings provide valuable policy implications for assisting agricultural producers in adopting suitable strategies, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and profitability within the global value chains of agri-food. While these findings emphasize producer-centric strategies for sustainable agriculture, we also recognize the need to investigate broader production-level dynamics and environmental pressures. The second study shifts the focus to cropland loss and its implications for agricultural production and food security in China—key components of sustainable development beyond the individual farm level. Cropland loss poses significant threats to agricultural production and food security in China, yet knowledge of its recent trajectories and underlying drivers remains limited. This study investigates the impact of climate (particularly temperature extremes), economic growth, government policies, and land quality on cropland loss, using county-level data from 2016 to 2019. By differentiating cropland abandonment, urbanization-driven conversion, and reforestation, we provide a nuanced analysis of cropland dynamics. We find that, first, cropland loss is increasingly pronounced, with abandonment accounting for nearly 90% of the annual reduction. Second, climate change, especially the increasing high heat, accelerates cropland loss through (1) reduced agricultural profitability in low-productivity, grain-focused areas with rigid pricing policies, and (2) a shift toward off-farm employment in economically underdeveloped regions. Third, southern counties, major grain-producing zones, and agriculturally dependent areas remain particularly vulnerable to extreme heat, especially in high-productivity flatlands. Finally, cropland expansion does not offset these losses, but better mechanization enhances resilience to heat-induced pressures. Several policy implications can be drawn from this study, including promoting high-standard cropland construction to enhance soil quality and yields, reforming grain pricing mechanisms and subsidies to stabilize incomes, and modernizing agricultural technologies and land-management practices such as land transfer and mechanization. While the second study emphasizes cropland loss as a critical aspect of agricultural sustainable development, the third study addresses the methodological challenges in accurately assessing climate change’s impact on agricultural production by examining measurement errors in climate data. Climate change and its effects on economic growth, particularly agricultural production, are key topics in academic research and policy-making. Accurate assessment of climate impacts on agriculture requires precise climate data, yet weather data often contain measurement errors, posing challenges for studies on agriculture's economic implications. The third study examines how measurement errors, particularly urban heat island (UHI) biases in temperature data, affect estimates of climate change's impact on agricultural production. Using five years (2015-2019) of unbalanced panel data covering 2,288 counties in mainland China, we confirm higher temperatures in built-up areas compared to cropland areas, leading to a 21.94% underestimation of climate impact on grain yield, and the bias is more pronounced in developed regions. Further, this study analyzes heterogeneity at two levels: crop types and economic geographical regions. Heterogeneous analysis based on cropland temperature reveals that potatoes are the most sensitive to climate change, followed by wheat, rice, and corn. The impact of temperature on grain yield is positive in northern China and negative, though not significant, in southern China, suggesting environmental injustice under global warming. Furthermore, correcting these errors reveals previous studies understated the temperature impact on yield by over 50%, emphasizing the need for precise temperature data and refined data processing methods for future research. In the final study of this dissertation, we shift our focus to a policy-centered analysis, evaluating the evolution of policies designed to achieve long-term sustainability goals. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Parliament (EP) serves as a cornerstone of European public policy studies and represents the world's leading agricultural support system. This study examines whether government support policies in the agricultural sector have evolved toward a fairer, greener, and more flexible framework. To guide the analysis, we develop the SSCIR-3F analytical framework, which integrates five key CAP policy domains—Food Security (S), Sustainability (S), Agricultural Competitiveness (C), Farmer Income (I), and Rural Development (R)—with the triphasic progression of agricultural development: Food, Farm, and Future (3F). This framework captures CAP’s policy priorities, budgetary dynamics, and the theoretical stages of agricultural development. Using machine learning techniques, including text mining and clustering, this study analyzes legislative texts ratified by the EP to identify patterns of harmony, conflict, and evolution within the CAP. The findings reveal a clear prioritization in recent EP discussions: sustainability has emerged as the dominant focus, followed by farmer incomes, food security, rural development, and competitiveness. This hierarchy aligns closely with the SSCIR-3F framework. Clustering results further highlight key themes such as biodiversity, ecosystems, forests, and climate change, reinforcing the increasing emphasis on environmental sustainability. Additionally, a congruence between CAP expenditures and the evolving SSCIR priorities was identified, suggesting that policy articulation increasingly aligns with tangible implementation. These findings underscore the CAP's trajectory toward a more ecologically focused, balanced, and adaptable policy paradigm. Overall, this thesis attempts to explain the multifaceted challenges and opportunities in achieving agricultural sustainable development, emphasizing the roles of technology, climate, land use, and policy evolution. By combining empirical analysis, methodological refinement, and policy evaluation, this thesis provides insights into advancing sustainable agricultural practices and adapting agricultural systems to environmental and socioeconomic pressures. It offers implications for stakeholders to address pressing global challenges in food security and sustainability.
Keywords: Agricultural production; Product certification; E-commerce; Cropland loss; Climate change; Measurement error; Common Agricultural Policy; Agricultural development stages
