Essays on the Economics of Global Food Security
by Jonas Stehl
Date of Examination:2025-06-16
Date of issue:2025-09-10
Advisor:Prof. Dr. Sebastian Vollmer
Referee:Prof. Dr. Sebastian Vollmer
Referee:Prof. Dr. Lindsay Jaacks
Referee:Prof. Dr. Liesbeth Colen
Persistent Address:
http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-11472
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Abstract
English
This dissertation investigates key challenges in achieving healthy and sustainable diets for people around the globe, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in particular. It focuses on the roles of production, markets, affordability, and deep-rooted cultural practices. Across four empirical essays, I combine global datasets, household survey data, anthropological records, and food price information to explore the structural, behavioral, and economic determinants of diet diversity and adequacy. Essay 1 evaluates the capacity of 186 countries to meet international dietary guidelines through domestic food production alone. Using adjusted production data across seven food groups and dietary benchmarks from the WWF’s Livewell diet and EAT-Lancet recommendations, the analysis reveals that over one-third of countries can meet recommendations for only zero, one, or two food groups. Many small or trade-dependent countries—particularly in the Caribbean, West Africa, and the Gulf—lack production self-sufficiency, with little improvement projected through 2032. Essay 2 uses harmonized food consumption and expenditure data from 1.1 million households across 45 LMICs to examine the sources of dietary diversity. Results show that markets are the dominant source of food—even for poor, rural, and agricultural households—particularly for animal-source foods and fruits. Diversity in diets is driven almost entirely by purchased foods rather than own production. Moreover, poor households often cannot afford nutrient-rich foods. Essay 3 explores the long-term persistence of cultural traits on food consumption by linking anthropological records of ancestral livestock practices with household-level diet data. Using a regression discontinuity design and ethnicity-linked data, the analysis finds that households in historically cattle-reliant societies exhibit higher consumption of animal-source foods (excluding beef), milk, vegetables, and higher dietary diversity today—despite cattle traditionally being less used for subsistence. These patterns persist even after accounting for socioeconomic and geographic factors, pointing to intergenerational transmission of food preferences and livestock practices. Essay 4 introduces new global poverty lines based on the affordability of least-cost healthy diets. These Healthy Diet Poverty Lines (HPLs) redefine poverty to include nutritious diets, not just caloric sufficiency. Applying these thresholds suggests that between 2.3 and 2.9 billion people globally are poor—3.5 to 4.4 times more than those identified using the conventional \$2.15/day line. The global income gap to afford a healthy diet ranges from \$1.7 to $2.4 trillion annually.
Keywords: Food security; Dietary diversity; Poverty; Low- and middle-income countries; Healthy diets; Household data; Cross-country analysis; Food systems; Self-sufficiency; Market access
