Price cycles and synchronization in South America

Fliessbach, Astrid

dc.contributor.advisor	von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan Prof. Dr.
dc.contributor.author	Fliessbach, Astrid
dc.date.accessioned	2020-02-21T10:06:51Z
dc.date.available	2020-02-21T10:06:51Z
dc.date.issued	2020-02-21
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/21.11130/00-1735-0000-0005-132C-5
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-7874
dc.language.iso	eng	de
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc	630	de
dc.title	Price cycles and synchronization in South America	de
dc.type	doctoralThesis	de
dc.contributor.referee	Ihle, Rico Prof. Dr.
dc.date.examination	2020-02-05
dc.description.abstracteng	Prices of agricultural products often vary in relatively stable recurring patterns around their long-run trends. These variations translate into fluctuations of selling prices as well as farm revenues. We provide an overview of the current literature on agricultural price cycles. Using a transparent and reproducible structural model selection process and the Kalman filter, we select optimal models and estimate the cyclic patterns of pig and cattle prices for Brazil, Chile and Uruguay. Durations of cycles in pig and cattle prices is found to respectively be about three years and seven years. These durations are in line with literature and the biological limitations of livestock production. This knowledge can inform producers with forecasts on price developments in the short run. It is useful for guiding policy makers on the timing of policy interventions for influencing the duration or the amplitudes of cycles. The price spikes in many agricultural commodities experienced simultaneously at the global scale in 2007/2008 have substantially increased the interest in the phenomenon of synchronized movements of agricultural prices. Nevertheless, agricultural economics literature has scarcely devoted attention to the measurement of such synchronization. We fill this gap by measuring various aspects of synchronization between the cyclical components of pig and cattle prices of three Latin American countries for a period of almost 30 years using the concordance index methodology. We also assess potentially temporally varying stability, symmetry and permanence of synchronization. Synchronization between pairs of pig or cattle price cycles is found to be of moderate level: prices moving into the same direction during about two thirds of the observed periods. Synchronization appears to be fairly instable between the price cycles of one commodity across countries as well as across commodities within one country. The instabilities in synchronization tend to be asymmetric. These findings indicate that governments would profit from expanding their institutional efforts for monitoring agricultural and food prices.	de
dc.contributor.coReferee	Brümmer, Bernhard Prof. Dr.
dc.subject.eng	cattle cycle	de
dc.subject.eng	Kalman filter	de
dc.subject.eng	pig cycle	de
dc.subject.eng	pork cycle	de
dc.subject.eng	price fluctuations	de
dc.subject.eng	state space models	de
dc.subject.eng	concordance index	de
dc.subject.eng	Latin America	de
dc.subject.eng	price comovement	de
dc.subject.eng	Fließbach
dc.subject.eng	synchronization
dc.identifier.urn	urn:nbn:de:gbv:7-21.11130/00-1735-0000-0005-132C-5-7
dc.affiliation.institute	Fakultät für Agrarwissenschaften	de
dc.subject.gokfull	Land- und Forstwirtschaft (PPN621302791)	de
dc.identifier.ppn	1690813806

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