Designing fiscal policy

Dubbert, Tore

On the trade-off between macroeconomic stabilization and government debt sustainability

dc.contributor.advisor	Berger, Tino Prof. Dr.
dc.contributor.author	Dubbert, Tore
dc.date.accessioned	2023-04-24T16:16:17Z
dc.date.available	2023-05-02T00:50:11Z
dc.date.issued	2023-04-24
dc.identifier.uri	http://resolver.sub.uni-goettingen.de/purl?ediss-11858/14640
dc.identifier.uri	http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-9854
dc.format.extent	XXX Seiten	de
dc.language.iso	eng	de
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject.ddc	330	de
dc.title	Designing fiscal policy	de
dc.title.alternative	On the trade-off between macroeconomic stabilization and government debt sustainability	de
dc.type	doctoralThesis	de
dc.contributor.referee	Berger, Tino Prof. Dr.
dc.date.examination	2023-03-24	de
dc.description.abstracteng	This dissertation, comprising three academic papers, deals with the trade-off between fiscal sustainability and macroeconomic stabilization. The first paper examines the specification of fiscal reaction functions: We argue that the fiscal response to public debt is varying over time, finding formal empirical evidence in favor. We then link this non-linear fiscal response to changes in the interest rate-growth differential and the level of public debt. The second paper takes time-varying parameter fiscal reaction functions to an out-of-sample forecast performance evaluation, embedding it in a stochastic debt sustainability analysis framework to forecast the primary balance and public debt for a sample of ten OECD countries. The results suggest that stochastic debt sustainability analyses featuring time-varying parameter fiscal reaction functions perform competitively at short horizons, implying a potential role for fiscal forecasting at policy institutions. The third paper provides a quantitative framework to assess government spending policies based on their effects on the business cycle in the United States. Identifying the output gap from the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, we find that the dosage of expansionary fiscal policy is key: Pronounced fiscal stimulus does increase the output gap, but can lead to an overheating economy and increasing public debt levels.	de
dc.contributor.coReferee	Kempa, Bernd Prof. Dr.
dc.contributor.thirdReferee	Schwager, Robert Prof. Dr.
dc.subject.eng	fiscal policy	de
dc.subject.eng	fiscal reaction function	de
dc.subject.eng	macroeconomic stabilization	de
dc.subject.eng	state-space models	de
dc.subject.eng	Bayesian estimation	de
dc.subject.eng	government debt sustainability analysis	de
dc.subject.eng	business cycles	de
dc.identifier.urn	urn:nbn:de:gbv:7-ediss-14640-1
dc.affiliation.institute	Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät	de
dc.subject.gokfull	Wirtschaftswissenschaften (PPN621567140)	de
dc.description.embargoed	2023-05-02	de
dc.identifier.ppn	1843556952
dc.notes.confirmationsent	Confirmation sent 2023-04-24T19:45:02	de

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