| dc.description.abstracteng | Da Nang City is located in the south central coast region of Viet Nam, between 15°55’19” to 16°13’20”N and 107°49’11” to 108°20’20”E, and covers an area of approximately 1,283.42 km2, including Paracel Island (Hoang Sa) of 305 km2. Since its adoption of the DOI MOI policy in economy of the national assembly in 1986, which was changing from a centrally planned economy to a market oriented economy, Da Nang has developed in many aspects. Da Nang has been known as one of five independent municipalities of Viet Nam, after separating from Quang Nam Province on January 1st 1997. From then, it has asserted its position at the national level and today constitutes as the Key Economic Zone in central Viet Nam. Consequently, rapid industrialization and urbanization have caused the incessant change of land use/cover (LULC) in Da Nang city. However, less attention has been paid to assess the long-term development and driving forces of LULC changes. In this context, the study aims to (1) detect, quantify and characterize the changes of LULC in Da Nang City region by using multi-temporal images from 1979 to 2009; (2) explore the effects of LULC changes on landscape structure through spatial landscape metrics; (3) simulate the changes of LULC under different scenarios by the integration of SD model and Dyna-CLUE model.
The results of this thesis show that a total of 35689.79 ha or 37% of the total land has undergone change. The analysis indicates a notable decrease of agriculture, forest, barren, and shrub due to the expansion of urban. The speed and transformation trends of LULC varied in different research periods. Before being separated from Quang Nam Province (1979-1996), the LULC in Da Nang City changed gradually. However, after becoming an independent municipality, the LULC changed with rapid speed, especially urban area. Within thirteen years (1996-2009), urban area grew up 86.6% of net increase of urban area. This could be caused by strong focus of economic development. From the following urban area, agriculture, and forest had a high rate of change, with a decreasing trend. In the meantime, key landscape indices were performed to further understand the spatial distribution of three main classes, including urban, agriculture and forest. The dynamic change of landscape indices at agriculture class revealed the break-up of the area into smaller patches. However, except agriculture, patches of forestry, and urban tended to have a uniform landscape configuration.
To simulate the future changes of LULC at Da Nang City from 2009 to 2030, three scenarios with different missions were developed, namely, scenario A “development as usual”, scenario B “aggressive development”, and scenario C “optimal development”. All scenarios give a continuous increase in urban area, and a gradual decrease in agriculture, barren, and shrub area. The change of urban area in 2030 is the highest under B scenario with 17152.7 ha (99.16%) and the lowest under C scenario with 9794.23 ha (56.62%). The B scenario results in the most loss of agricultural area 6098.96 ha (83.61%), while the C scenario shows the least loss of agricultural area 1996.98 ha (27.40%) during the simulated period. Particularly, forest areas decrease by 5269.19 ha (9.1%) and 5125.59 ha (8.85%) under scenario A and B, respectively; meanwhile, the C scenario, emphasized the environmental issue, shows no change in forest (57936.2 ha) during the simulated period. | de |