| dc.contributor.advisor | Brümmer, Bernhard Prof. Dr. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Dalheimer, Bernhard | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-10-14T11:13:10Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-10-14T11:13:10Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020-10-14 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/21.11130/00-1735-0000-0005-14B4-9 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://dx.doi.org/10.53846/goediss-8253 | |
| dc.language.iso | deu | de |
| dc.rights.uri | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ | |
| dc.subject.ddc | 630 | de |
| dc.title | Economic Policy in Global Commodity Markets - Methods, Efficiency and Trade-offs | de |
| dc.type | doctoralThesis | de |
| dc.contributor.referee | Wollni, Meike Prof. Dr. | |
| dc.date.examination | 2020-07-13 | |
| dc.description.abstracteng | Globally, policy-makers increasingly shift value from economic towards social and environmental outcomes of the economy. Successfully achieving economic, social and environmental goals jointly inevitably leads to trade-offs at multiple stages of agricultural value chains. Agricultural commodity markets provide manifold opportunities for policy makers to mitigate such trade-offs by creating environmental and societal values. Both real world applications and advancement of empirical methodology to evaluate those are essential to an exhaustive evidence-base for economic policy that aims at mitigating trade-offs. This dissertation aims at extending two distinct scientific frontiers of research on agri-environmental-social policy trade-offs. The first focus is placed on socio-environmental trade-offs faced at the producer stage. The palm oil boom and related ecological crisis in Indonesia provides a resourceful case to empirically explore the role of smallholder agricultural production within the conflicting aims. The second focus lies on the advancement of data-driven identification techniques in structural time series analysis and its application to commodity market analysis.
The first two essays (chapters two and three) analyse the technical and environmental performance of smallholder oil palm producers in Jambi, Indonesia. We focus on policy implications regarding the production technology, shortcomings in performance compared with best-practice and biodiversity, and deforestation as environmental aspects. The first essay asks whether technical efficiency reduces or accelerates oil palm area expansion. The findings indicate that while the land sparing potential of increased smallholder efficiency is remarkable, higher returns to palm oil production also increase demand for land by a factor of one third. Thus, successful rural development and conservationist policy need to reconcile both effects by connecting smallholder support with more formalized land markets and stringent land policy. The second essay models the trade-off between oil palm output and biodiversity loss and estimates the performance of smallholders. It derives respective shadow prices and simulates several payments for ecosystem services (PES) scenarios. The findings suggest presence of substantial environmental inefficiency in smallholder oil palm production which is in part explained by both chemical and manual weeding practices. Payments for ecosystem services schemes could be a viable policy response to conserve meaningful levels of biodiversity while at the same time allowing smallholders to increase palm oil output. Addressing drivers of environmental performance in PES designs could amplify the effect thereof without reducing production levels. The third essay (chapter four) evaluates the policy efficacy of the tripartite rubber council (TRC) to detach the international rubber price from synthetic rubber and crude oil prices. The findings indicate that restricting supply did not impact international markets as expected and increasing domestic consumption might even have backfired and contributed to further decreases in international prices.
The last two essays (chapters five and six) are concerned with data-driven identification methods in multivariate time series models. The fourth essay provides a software implementation of novel structural identification techniques making use of heteroskedasticty-based and independence-based assumptions. The fifth essay applies independent component analysis (ICA) to identify structural crude oil shocks on food markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The findings indicate that SSA food markets respond more strongly to oil-supply shocks and less pronounced to oil-specific demand end aggregate-demand shocks than global markets. As transportation costs continue to be very important components of the cost of food production in SSA, inefficient fuel distribution systems and absence of strategic energy reserves lead to vulnerability of food prices to oil-supply shocks. Food prices in Sub-Sahara Africa respond fundamentally different to oil shocks than world market prices or those in developed countries. In addition, SSA food markets are also not alike in their response to global oil shocks but very heterogeneous. This is likely to be also the case for other developing countries' food markets. | de |
| dc.contributor.coReferee | von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan Prof. Dr. | |
| dc.subject.eng | Efficiency & productivity + Palm oil + Rebound Effect + Agricultural Policy + Environmental Policy + Agricultural Markets + SVARS + R Software + Food Security + Corn market + Rubber market | de |
| dc.identifier.urn | urn:nbn:de:gbv:7-21.11130/00-1735-0000-0005-14B4-9-4 | |
| dc.affiliation.institute | Fakultät für Agrarwissenschaften | de |
| dc.subject.gokfull | Land- und Forstwirtschaft (PPN621302791) | de |
| dc.identifier.ppn | 1735627658 | |